Yavaşlayan ABD enflasyonu, dolarda küresel düşüşü hızlandırdı ve dünya çapında riskli varlıklara fayda sağladı. Dolar birçok para birimi karşısında düştüğü için altın ve gümüş gibi değerli metallerin fiyatları yükseliyor.
Dolar, bir sepet para birimi karşısında geçen yılın yirmi yılın en yüksek seviyesinden yaklaşık %13 düşerek 15 ayın en düşük seviyesine indi. ABD Çarşamba günü beklenenden zayıf enflasyon verileri yayınlayarak, Fed’in faiz artırım döngüsünün sonuna yaklaştığı ve düşüşü hızlandırdığı yönündeki spekülasyonları ateşledi.
Dolar, küresel finansal sistemin temel taşlarından biridir. Bu nedenle dolar düşmeye devam ederse, çok çeşitli varlıklar fayda sağlayacaktır. Özellikle daha zayıf bir dolar, bazı ABD şirketleri için büyük bir fırsat olabilir. Daha zayıf bir para birimi, yabancı ihracatı daha rekabetçi hale getirir. Ve çok uluslu şirketlerin yabancı karları tekrar dolara çevirmesini daha ucuz hale getirir.
Bespoke Investment Group’un Russell 1000 şirketleri üzerinde yaptığı bir analize göre, bu yıl pazarı hareketlendiren büyük büyüme şirketlerinden bazılarını içeren ABD teknoloji sektörü, yabancı satışların %50’sinden fazlasını oluşturuyor.
Ayrıca Reuters’e göre, zayıf bir dolar, dolar cinsinden malları yabancı alıcılar için daha uygun hale getirecek. S&P/Goldman Sachs Emtia Endeksi bu ay %4,6 ile Ekim ayından bu yana en iyi ayı olma yolunda ilerliyor.
Dolarda Küresel Düşüş Borçların Erimesini Sağlıyor
ABD para biriminin değer kaybetmesi dolar cinsinden borç ödemeyi kolaylaştırdığından, gelişmekte olan piyasalar da bundan faydalanıyor. MSCI Uluslararası Gelişmekte Olan Piyasa Para Birimi Endeksi yılbaşından bu yana %2,4 arttı. Credit Suisse döviz stratejisti Alvis Marino, “Zayıf dolar ve buna bağlı olarak enflasyondaki yavaşlama, özellikle ABD dışı varlıklarda piyasayı destekliyor” dedi.
Doların düşüşü, son birkaç gün içinde ABD Hazine tahvil getirilerinin düşmesi, doların çekiciliğini zayıflatması ve Japon yeninden Meksika pezosuna kadar birçok başka para birimini artırmasının ardından geldi.
Copay baş piyasa stratejisti Karl Schamotta, “Duyduğunuz bu ses döviz piyasasında teknik seviyede bir kırılma” dedi. Ayrıca dolar, Fed oranları artırmaya başlamadan önceki seviyelere düştü. Ve riske duyarlı para birimleri dünya çapında düşüyor.
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